PARIS.- Gloomy but predictable prospects for Britain’s ruling conservatives: predictions from opinion polls historic victory for the opposition Labor Party in the July 4 election coming to England. At the same time, six days after declaring that he would not be a candidate, the right wing Nigel Farage changed his mind and will defend the English Reformation party.

All the polls this week predict: the collapse of the Tory Party will be the most important event in more than a hundred years. Since 1906, according to YouGov. The agency, which published its estimates today, predicts just that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party will only win 140 seats out of 650 which formed the British House of Commons.

According to the poll, a conservative collapse would be so dramatic that no candidate would be able to garner 50% of the vote in their own constituency. The study also predicts that Tory leaders including Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, House leader Penny Mordaunt and high-profile pro-Brexit Jacob Res-Mogg will also lose their seats.

Meanwhile, the opposition Labor Party will end the election with 422 deputies. That is, with a majority of 194 seats. Led by Mr Keir Starmer, Labor will make significant progress across the UK. In percentage terms, the party is currently more than 20 points ahead of the ruling party.

And as no bad news comes alone, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak found himself at the center of a new scandal this week: more than half of the UK’s cities receiving the €20 million subsidy are run by the Conservative Party, while only eight receive it grant. given to the Labor Party. In other words, Sunak was accused of “buying” his voters.

Voters the party cannot win back. Among Britons who overwhelmingly voted for Boris Johnson in 2019, alone 36% said they would vote Conservative on July 4th.

And there’s no time to convince them. Tomorrow night, Sunak and Starmer will face off in the first of two televised campaign debates. But Experts consider the choice “decided”. Most importantly, because Keir Starmer was able to discipline his party, moving it away from the extremism that his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn had plunged into.

Over the weekend, the Labor leader even went fishing in Tory waters, promising to reduce immigration to the UK.

“I will reject the immigration number,” he said in an interview with the popular newspaper Sun. An interesting argument, considering that the conservative camp has been in power for 14 years, making this the axis of public debate in the country.

Net immigration increased to 685,000 additional people by 2023, according to official statistics. This means the second highest after the record achieved the previous year (764,000 people).

“If you do me the honor of entrusting me with the keys – Downing Street, the seat of government – ​​I promise you: I will control our borders and help British companies to employ British people first.he stated.

This is the first time this former lawyer who is a human rights expert has entered this field.

Starmer’s promises should please Nigel Farage, Europe’s right-wing, xenophobic, climate-sceptic and anti-Brexit figure who is currently, as is his custom, announced his candidacy for the Commons, a week after dropping the idea.

Farage will run under the flag English Reformation, an organization he also wants to be the leader of. “I will be a candidate” in the Clacton (South East England) constituency, he said.

“There is resistance from the political class in this country. “To a point that has never been seen in modern times,” said the 60-year-old politician who has tried unsuccessfully seven times to be elected as a people’s representative.

Will he get it this time? The first six attempts, he said, were “not serious” – just attempts to gain publicity for his party at the time, UKIP. As for his defeat in South Thanet in 2015 when – he said – he campaigned “seriously”, it was caused by fraud organized by the Conservative Party. An allegation for which British police never obtained evidence.

Afterward, he vowed that he would never again run in a single-round, single-member majority election, which is especially difficult for small parties and rebels. UKIP’s success is of course thanks to the European Parliament which uses a proportional representation system.

But Farage is a serial traitor. During his career he has retired from political leadership several times: from UKIP, the Brexit Party, and the British Reformation Party.

“I couldn’t leave those millions of people behind,” he says now.. According to him, he responded to countless voter requests.

Farage rose to prominence in 2016, during the referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), which he campaigned fiercely for. A former member of the European parliament with a controversial personality, Farage is currently an entertainer on a conservative television network GB News, a platform that ensured him particular popularity among conservative voters. Like many right-wing populists, he often insists there is no difference between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Tories and Keir Starmer’s Labor Party.

According to a YouGov poll released today, The British Reformation had a voting intention of 15%.placing it just five points behind the Conservative Party and well ahead of the Liberal Democrat Party (LibDem), traditionally the third political force in Britain.