Riverside buildings in coastal city Dernain the eastern Mediterranean, collapsed afterwards Typhoon Daniel will provoke heavy rain which breaks river dams and swallows entire environments.

A potentially deadly mix: DANA, warm seas and Mediterranean cyclones

Daniel Formed around September 4 2023 under DANA (cut low), bringing death and destruction Bulgaria, Greece and Turkiye The last week.

After that, a Mediterranean cyclone was formed with the characteristics of a tropical cyclone and hurricane, which could be “treat“, which only happens one to three times a year.

This cyclone requires flow of heat and moistureThat “enhanced by warm sea surface temperatureshe pointed out Suzanne Grayprofessor in the department of meteorology at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.

Surface waters in the eastern Mediterranean and Atlantic are 2 to 3°C warmer than normal and “possibly causing heavier rainfallsaid scientists participating in a national meeting on climate impacts in the UK.

But it’s unclear whether high-pressure blocking patterns that cause heavy rains and flooding will become more common in the future, they said.

The latest assessment report from the UN scientific advisory panel on climate change, released earlier this year, concluded this A warming world increases the potential for treatment even though the frequency of treatment is decreasingGray added.

Most scientists are cautious about drawing direct links between specific weather events and long-term climate change.

But Daniel”is an illustration of the types of devastating floods we can expect to see in the future“As the world heats up, he said Lizzie Kendonprofessor of climate science at the University of Bristol.

European Union climate monitoring service, Copernicussaid that rising global sea surface temperatures are causing record heat around the world, and that 2023 will likely be the hottest year in human history.

According to scientists, The oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat generated by human activities since the beginning of the industrial era.

Political and administrative chaos and the absence of an early warning system

Some analysts believe that Fragmented political scene in Libyawhich was beset by civil conflict for more than a decade after the fall of dictator Moamer Gaddafi in 2011, contributed to the destruction.

This North African country is torn between two competing governments: An internationally recognized, UN-brokered government based in the capital Tripoli in the west, and a separate government in the flood-affected eastern region.

“There are no natural disasters“, he claimed Leslie Mabonprofessor of environmental systems at the Open University, based in the UK.

Although climate change may make extreme weather events more frequent and intense, Social, political and economic factors determine who is most at riskhe claimed.

Loss of life is also a result of limited capabilities of forecasting, warning and evacuation systems from Libya, he said Kevin Collinssenior lecturer at the Open University.

Weaknesses in infrastructure and urban planning and design standards were also exposed, he added.

Scientists from National Climate Impact Program from England also noted that “infrastructure turning point“, such as additional pressure on the dam, causes Extreme weather events are becoming more deadly and destructive.

“Political conditions in Libya”pose challenges for the development of communication strategies and risk assessments, the coordination of rescue operations and, most likely, also for the maintenance of critical infrastructure such as damsMabon added.

We will have to wait a few more days to know the number of dead and missing in the city of Derna in Libya.