Southern Norway has felt a European heatwave this summer. Can we expect continental conditions in Norway as the climate changes?
In recent weeks, several countries in Europe have seen new record heat. Fires have occurred in several places in the south of the continent. In Great Britain, authorities for the first time sent out a warning stating that heat waves can be dangerous and deadly also for people who are fit and healthy.
British meteorologists’ future forecasts from 2020, which provide a frightening picture of what the weather will be like in 2050, are almost a reality, 28 years earlier than expected.
In 2020, @metoffice generates a hypothetical weather forecast for 23 July 2050 based on UK climate projections.
Today, forecasts for Tuesday are surprisingly nearly identical for most countries. pic.twitter.com/U5hQhZwoTi
— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) 15 July 2022
Hot, shock and hot
In Norway, NRK broadcast a similar prediction in 2020. This tells us something about how meteorologists think of Norway’s extreme summer in 30 years’ time.
State meteorologist Kristian Gislefoss later reported a fictitious heatwave that lasted for several weeks and caused wildfires in southern and eastern Norway. In some places the temperature reaches over 35 degrees.
At the same time, Northern Norway is marked by landslides and landslides.
The weather hasn’t been sensational in Norway yet, in 2022. This summer we were “hit” by a European heatwave, with temperatures over 30 degrees in some parts of the country.
Unbelievably hot? Healthy. According to the Meteorological Institute, we have summer days above 30 degrees a little less frequently than every other year.
Are summer days over 30 degrees common in Norway? No really not. At Blindern, it has measured above 30 degrees in 33 of the last 85 years, which is slightly less than every year. However, on Wednesday, it appears that some places in the south and east of the country may reach 30 degrees. pic.twitter.com/ae71BPy0wZ
— Meteorologist (@TheMeteorologen) 19 July 2022
However, the heat in southeastern Norway is somewhat higher than typical Norwegian summer days.
According to the Meteorological Institute, the average annual high between 1991 and 2020 is 29.6 degrees at the measuring station at Blindern in Oslo.
Here’s how average annual maximum temperature in summer in different parts of Norway:
- Oslo: 29.6 degrees
- Sun: 28 degrees
- Bergen: 28.6 degrees
- Vrnes: 28.9 degrees
- Body: 25.9 degrees
- Trom: 25 degree
- Vard: 21.4 degrees.
– Heatwaves are more likely due to climate change
Can we pinpoint this year’s heatwave in Europe and blame climate change?
After all, it is likely that climate change is contributing to an increase in temperature. According to the World Weather Attribution, all analyzed heat waves in Europe since 2003 have occurred more reasonable and more intense due to human-caused climate change.
Investigation confirm that the heatwave in Europe in 2019 was much more likely to be caused by climate change. That year, new heat records were set in a number of countries in Europe. In a normal climate, temperatures will be between 1.5 and 3 degrees lower during this period.
– The heatwave in July 2019 was so extreme over continental Western Europe that observed levels are highly unlikely without climate change, the report said.
A little warmer, much wetter
Does this mean that we can expect warmer weather and more summer heatwaves in Norway in the coming years?
The Carbon Brief website has been developed a tool which looked at the effects of global warming at 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, and in some cases 3 degrees.
At 2 degrees of warming, Carbon Brief believes that the number of hot day with temperature above 30 degrees, will increase one day in Scandinavia. For comparison, the figure is 10 for Mediterranean countries, and 16 for Spain and Portugal.
The daily maximum temperature in summer will rise by 1.3 degrees in Scandinavia.
At the same time, the maximum daily rainfall will increase by 12 percent in Scandinavia, and we will have fewer consecutive days without rain.
Based on these figures, we can therefore say that we probably won’t be getting a regular heatwave in Norway as we have seen in southern Europe this summer. On the other hand, we will have a wetter summer.
️Danger warning for heavy rain⚠️
On Friday, there may be heavy rain in parts of Eastern Norway, locally more than 20 millimeters may fall in an hour. There will be large local variations in intensity and quantity, and the weather can change rapidly ️
— Meteorologist (@TheMeteorologen) 21 July 2022
Updated: Monday August 1, 2022 13:53
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