The international panorama of 2022 is far from static. Although the year will be greeted by new variants already present in most parts of the world, how it is marked will also be very important. global economy reactivation rate given the concerns of a global slowdown and inflation.
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“The truth is that the world has advanced in the vaccination process and the shutdown will not be the same as it was before. What will be seen is a broader search for vaccines and other mechanisms to treat the pandemic. There is a bigger strategy to dodge any attacksays Gabriel Orozco, professor of international relations at Simón Bolívar University.
However, beyond that, the year will be determined by the consolidation of various phenomena that occur in 2021, such as struggling to focus more on the climate crisis, the container and driver crisis, in certain countries’ agendas, in the case of Latin America, the holding of the final presidential election forms the political scene for the next few years.
“The climate emergency is a very important issue, we saw it at the last COP26. The fact that Joe Biden is in power in the United States changes the tide in this regardsaid Mauricio Jaramillo, professor of international relations at the Universidad del Rosario.
Jaramillo added that, in general, the world should also pay attention nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran.
(See: This is the first anticovid vaccine made in Latin America).
Thus, both analysts agree that this will be a very important year for matters relating to global value chains and their reconfiguration as a result of the container crisis.
“This has caused several economies to experience inflationary processes which are also coupled with higher fiscal deficits. We will look at the search for looser tax reforms. Monetary orthodoxy will be increasingly abandoned, where the problem of deficit will not be a big concern of developed countries“Orozco showed on the turn.
On the other hand, as a result of the ‘Pandora Papers’ the world opened up a debate about the policies of countries in large capital audit.
“If any State is more compliant with respect to tax havens or with more ambiguous rules. This is an increasingly relevant issue in the world and is related to the reactivation of the economy“explained Jaramillo.
WHAT’S COMING FOR EUROPE?
Apart from the fight against a new variant of the pandemic causing numbers never seen before on the ‘old continent’, what will happen in Europe next year is also related to the economic recovery that has already occurred. resolution of conflicts such as tensions between Ukraine and Russia or the recent crisis on the Belarusian border.
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“At that time tensions with Russia as a result of Ukraine, which is a dormant issue and which has been building up in recent months. In addition, Russia’s relations with Europe have been poisoned by the Belarusian problem and tensions with Poland on immigration issues., hit by Jaramillo.
Another issue of particular concern to Europe is the readjustment of its value chains after Brexit, the effects of which have not been fully overcome and proved in 2021 and further amplified by the fishing conflict between the UK and France.
Moreover, Orozco pointed out that Europe will promote the reactivation of its economy regardless of other aspects.
“We will look at the process of capital injection by the European Central Bank to encourage reactivation; the take-off of the economy due to more expansionary but moderate policies awaiting inflation“added Orozco.
THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES
Many of the panoramas happened to WE it is reflected in the midterm elections, because that is where the legislative seats are renewed.
(See: Chile: economic expectations for the new Boric government).
According to Jaramillo, this is where Joe Biden It must focus its efforts and must have a goal of achieving a majority that will enable it to advance in the implementation of its plans for timely re-activation of the economy.
IN LATIN AMERICA
Looking at next year, he is focused on the presidential election that will be held in Colombia and Brazil that, if the candidate from the left wins, joins Boric’s new mandate in chile, one could talk about the return of leftist governments to the continent.
“The need for broader social consensus, protection policies and the pursuit of greater efficiency by States to meet the needs of those most in need will be the most common discourse. How the speech moves will be very important. If there is no moderate discourse from the center right and they can actually signal an intention to vote, chances are the left government will return.“Said Orozco.
(See: Problems in the logistics chain are slowing economic recovery).
MOST IMPORTANT KEY TO WATCHING FROM 2022
Re-adjustment of global value chains due to a crisis of containers and drivers.
The climate battle takes on a more important role.
Europe is debating its relationship with Russia, fueled by pressure on Ukraine, Belarus, among others.
american face parliamentary election the key to the sustainability of the Biden program.
Latin America has elections in key countries such as Colombia and Brazil. Boric is owned in Chile.
(See: How to capitalize on the world’s supply chain crisis).