The war waged by Russia on Ukraine is not coming to an end and has unleashed so much political and economic uncertainty that the scenario the real effects in Argentina were as numerous as they were for the Alberto Fernndez government.
Both in Alberto Fernndez’s government and in the opposition or among international analysts, they began to outline what might happen as follows five possible boards for Argentina’s future after the war in Ukraine:
1-TREATMENT WITH RUSSIA. In the government they are confident that the agreement that Alberto Fernndez signed with Putin at the recent meeting in Moscow will not fail. as he knows History writerambassador of Argentina to Russia, Eduardo Zuainsent in recent hours to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Santiago Cafiero, who energy investment projects, rail sales, infrastructure and nuclear energy “remain intact” for now.
It’s over. Although they don’t say it publicly, some Kirchnerist references believe that if Russia emerges stronger from this war, investment in Argentina will be greater because it remains an ally. The pro-Russian wing of the government led by Cristina Kirchner will try to stay intact “strategic alliance” with Mosc.
However, international analysts, diplomats and the opposition believe that the Argentine-Russian alliance will suffer a crushing blow because of the question Vladimir Putin posed.
To the former ambassador of Argentina, Felipe Friman, “The war erased the government’s hopes of accepting Russian investment.” This is what most Foreign Ministry and opposition references think. This assessment is based on concrete data: Russia’s Central Bank reserves and Moscow’s limits on action will make Putin very weak after this very costly war for the Kremlin.
2- SANCTIONS AND COMMODITIES. Economic sanctions United States, European Union, Japan, United Kingdom and other powers will apply to Russia will result in the understanding of some government officials “window of opportunity”. In other words, the government believes that Russia will be able to buy more grain or meat from Argentina than it buys today from European countries. And as I said last Thursday History writerRight now, Casa Rosada isn’t even thinking about imposing economic sanctions on Putin.
“The European boycott measures against Russia open up some trade possibilities between the Mercosur countries in terms of energy as well as food,” he said. Eduardo Sigal of the Great Front and allied with the Patria Institute.
Diego Guelar, Macri’s former ambassador to China supports this hypothesis: “Food commodity prices will go up and that will benefit us in the short term”said to History writer.
The ambassador said the same thing Julio Lascano and Vedia, which fulfills diplomatic missions in Cuba, Mexico, Angola and Nigeria. “Russia will benefit from countries like Argentina because it has historic ties and where our country will win in food sales,” he said.
However, it is true, as the former Argentine ambassador to Russia put it, Ricardo Lagorio that “trade between Argentina and Russia doesn’t really matter”. It’s about nothing more than nothing more than $850 million per year according to data from the Russian-Argentina Chamber of Commerce.
3-OIL AND GAS PRICES. Parallel to that grain trade Argentina will suffer from rising oil and gas prices due to Russia’s boycott in the war. From the Energy Secretary who leads Daniel Martnez they are closely following the events of the war in Ukraine and there are concerns.
This is no coincidence: in the first days of fighting in Ukraine natural gas jumped 30% while a barrel of oil exceeded 100 dollars. And this has only just begun. This worries the government a lot when it needs to import gas in winter and relies on crude oil prices to redefine public transport subsidy schemes.
“Argentina will suffer as an importer of Liquefied Natural Gas and will have a strong negative impact due to the increase in international gas prices caused by the conflict.. The impact will increase as demand grows due to seasonal changes“, said ke History writer Irma Arguello, energy policy specialist and international analyst.
In other words, sooner or later, the impact of gas and oil prices in Argentina will be very strong on the economy and the goal of the deficit or subsidy cuts imposed by Minister Martn Guzman. for this year.
4-AGREEMENT WITH IMF. Argentina’s zigzag position in the face of Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine is look through the magnifying glass from washing tony no small matter to reach an agreement with the IMF.
It’s true, as a public History writer, that at this point the agreement is a fact. But there may be changes in the quarterly evaluation, tied to the international stage. And that evaluation will depend on the IMF director whose country has a bigger role to play in the course of the war.
The United States, Japan and the European Union have strongly criticized Russia with economic sanctions. Alberto Fernndez chose to question the use of the military as a conflict resolution, but he avoided criticism at the OAS and hardline Kirchnerists, including Cristina Kirchner, remained engaged in silence in the face of Putin’s military advances.
Ambassador Lagorio, like many opposition leaders, believes that Argentina as president of pro tempore CELAC should give a stronger signal at the regional level against Russia and uphold the principle of defending the sovereignty of Ukraine. But for now, Argentina will not take that step. And the pro-Russian wing of the ruling party that believes that “NATO’s western borders must be respected” and here is the veiled question of the main countries that make up the IMF directory.
5-NEW WORLD SYSTEM. It is clear that after the war in Ukraine will be redefined a new world order in which Argentina must choose its future partners in a more selective and precise manner.
Diplomatic strategy Alberto Fernndez to tease Russia and China parallel to European Union and United States have limitations in real politics of diplomacy.
For Argentina, alliances with Russia and China could imply a possible worsening of relations in the future with Washington and the European Union.
Some of these were revealed this week by the ambassadors of the European Union, United States and Britain who approached Ukraine’s Charge d’Affaires in Buenos Aires, Sergiy Nebrat, to reject Russian military action.
In the document signed by the ambassadors they clarified: “We stress the importance of Argentina, as president of the Human Rights Council, continuing to defend human rights and the principles enshrined in the UN charter.especially the defense of territorial integrity Ukraine and rejection of the use of force”.
That is, it is impossible to be right with God and with the devil in the new guidelines of the world order after the war in Ukraine.
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