That FUND (an isolated depression at high levels) that has flooded half of Spain and kept citizens in suspense over the weekend continues to leave rainfall this Monday, although with less intensity. Is it raining as much as the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) predicts? Does the Civil Protection of the Community of Madrid really need to send alerts via cell phones in the region? This notification, the first sent by telephone in Spain about a true state of emergency, has also generated political controversy between leaders who defended the measure, and Aemet’s predictions and those who criticized him and demanded “that the forecast be refined.” .
How much rain did it rain in Spain in this episode?
Severe storms have resulted in over 150 mm (or liters per square metre) of rain. So, at points like Magán (Toledo), 160.8 mm is accumulated. In Aemet’s main network, San Rafael’s record stands out, with 147.8 mm collected on Sunday.
Outside the official network, there are places in the region that have been most affected with recorded rainfall approaching 200 mm. However, as Mar Gómez, meteorologist for the portal, says the time is“it wasn’t just raining in the central part. Yesterday’s rain Sunday was also heavy in the southwest points, prominent in Cádiz. In the province, the San José del Valle station marked the main network’s national maximum, with 172.2 mm. It also rained a lot in the eastern part of the country, especially in Tarragona, where the Tortosa station recorded 117.2 mm of rain”.
How much rain has it rained in Madrid in the last hours? Aemet reminded that the recorded record could be broken and could even reach 120 liters per square meter.
As explained José Luis Camacho, spokesman for Aemet, “the Retiro station has recorded 74 liters (partly on September 3 and partly on September 4), still far from 87 liters in one day. The record has not yet been broken as the rain system is expected to extend from the south to the north, providing hours of rainfall over the same area. The system moved slightly to the west (about 50 km) and from late afternoon the rainfall shifted west of the Community of Madrid, giving records between 80 and 100 liters in many points”.
According to Mar Gómez, “it is expected that more rain will fall on the center of the Community of Madrid and more limited in the western part, but with a very high accumulation. In fact, it is this amount that causes flooding and flooding .From 60 liters per square meter in one hour already considered heavy.”
Aemet predicted a severe storm in Madrid on Sunday afternoon, with the red warning reduced to orange. A violent storm occurred a few hours later. Are you surprised by this or are you already dealing with the possibility?
As explained by an Aemet spokesperson, “the weather prediction model prepared on Saturday indicated that on Sunday a stationary and continuous rainfall situation in the Community of Madrid during the daytime of Sunday. There is a probability of about 70% of other scenarios that may indicate the possibility However, the greatest possibility is that the system will release water in quantities of about 100 liters in 24 hours in many areas of the Sierra, the Metropolitan Area, and the southern plains. In La Mancha Toledo and in South Las Vegas, the event began as planned . script,” said Camacho. In the afternoon, he added, “it was observed that the system moved slightly to the west (about 50 km), no longer affecting the metropolitan area and moving to the axis of Toledo, Valle del Alberche, Ávila, and only affecting the western areas Power. corner of the Community of Madrid. “For this reason, the notice was changed, downgrading the Sierra and Metropolitana notices to orange and leaving those areas in red and raising all adjacent areas to orange.”
Is DANA responsible for all the rain that also occurs in the interior of Indonesia?
Yes, all the rain is caused by DANA.
Residents of the Community of Madrid received a Civil Protection alert from the Security and Emergency Agency on their mobile phones on Sunday (beeps and messages) warning of the “extreme risk of storms” in the region and asking them to stay indoors. residence. How does this alert work? Who decides when to send notifications to mobile phones and how?
These messages use a technology called ES-Alert Population Alert System (also known as reverse 112) which was recently implemented in Spain. It is integrated into the National Alert Network and allows Civil Protection authorities to send alert messages widely and immediately to mobile phones located in areas affected by an emergency or disaster.
As explained by the spokesperson for the Emergencies 112 Community of Madrid, this system belongs to the State, which provides technology through the European Union, and the Autonomous Community joined the project.
The ES-Alert system, which was implemented on June 21, 2022, is the result of a collaboration between the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Economy and Digital Transformation. Sunday was first used to warn of extreme phenomena (until now it has only been tested). While in Spain we are not used to receiving these alerts on our cell phones, they are common in countries such as the US, Japan, Chile or the UK to warn of the danger of hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis or floods, among others. other phenomena.
Meanwhile, Aemet issues a meteorological warning whenever an adverse meteorological phenomenon occurs (which may cause human losses or severe material damage) based on a color scale: green (no meteorological risk); yellow (no meteorological risk to the population in general, although there is a risk for certain activities); orange (significant risk, with unusual meteorological phenomena and a certain degree of danger to ordinary activities) and red (extreme risk, with unusual meteorological phenomena, of extraordinary intensity and with a very high degree of risk to the population).
In Sunday’s case, it was the Civil Protection of the Community of Madrid who, based on the information provided by Aemet (red notice), decided to send the alert to the mobile phones of the people of Madrid: “In the Community of Madrid we have been testing at the site of this system for a year and a half, and this is the first time we have used it across the region, globally, in the face of a real emergency,” the spokesperson said. for Emergencies 112.
Is the cell phone warning really necessary?
“From my point of view, the warning was properly given because there has been flooding in the west of Madrid and in Toledo, but within the DANA, a few kilometers will make all the difference. It is impossible to predict exactly where this major storm will go. fall. , that’s why notices were posted all over Madrid,” explains Mar Gómez. “There is a very high probability that large amounts of water will fall over large parts of the central area of the peninsula and there will be flooding and overflows. What the weather forecast shows is an absolute barbarity, and if it happened in the whole area, Madrid would be a disaster, so for me the notification is completely justified.”
“Of course, we believe that it has been very successful and comfortable, and that the vast majority of citizens have acted responsibly,” defended a spokesman for the Emergency 112 of the Community of Madrid, the body that launched the alert. Responding to criticism of no rain on Sunday afternoon, he stressed that “weather models are not an exact science, it is known that it will rain heavily. We got the weather forecast from Aemet and based on that, we acted. “Maybe they got the timing wrong and it turned out later than they expected, But it’s raining heavily,” he said.
On Aemet’s part, they point out that the agency issues its notifications in color code and calibrated to thresholds agreed with the Civil Protection, with which they have decades of institutional cooperation: “Aemet takes no responsibility and will not comment on sending messages through mobile phone but this is common practice at certain events in many countries,” said one spokesperson.
Will we be receiving mobile alerts as regularly as on Sundays from now on?
Yes, but as the spokesperson for the Community of Madrid Emergency stated, they will only send it when there is a major emergency: “It must be used sparingly because it is a very invasive tool, citizens already receive a lot of money.” spam on your phone. But we have seen that it is very useful and from the Community of Madrid we are obsessed with reaching citizens, treating them in a mature way and informing them properly about what is going to happen so that they can take appropriate action. “Until 10 or 15 years ago we only had media, then we started using social networks intensively and these mobile alert systems complemented the process,” he explains.
“We understand that people may be shocked, but this is common in other countries to protect their citizens and this is something we have to get used to. The first time we felt scared was normal, it was surprising. And I’m sure that other autonomous communities realize that this is a very effective tool,” he added.
Why is DANA behavior difficult to predict?
DANA is a pocket of atmospheric circulation regulated by the blocking action of anticyclones. In this case, one in the north (in the Azores) and one in the Mediterranean. Movement modeling is complex and therefore Many statistical models and predictions are used. The evolution of the polar groove giving rise to DANA, its formation in the Southwest and the two phases of precipitation organization are moderately well modeled at 24–36 hours. On day 3 or 5 “Look, we are working with a probabilistic scenario and that is why Aemet did not issue a warning in advance nor did it issue an impact estimate in sufficient detail,” said José Luis Camacho, a spokesman for the state agency.
His colleague Mar Gómez agrees, stressing that “DANAS is a complicated meteorological phenomenon because it is an isolated depression at high levels, outside the normal circulation of the atmosphere, so basically you have to monitor it hour by hour, minute by minute, because a lot of factors influence its behavior. It depends. where it is placed, it will leave more or less rain. It is known that it will rain heavily, with a high probability that it will be in the middle.”
Is it easier to predict the evolution of heatwaves?
“Yes, heat waves are easier to predict because we know there is an intrusion of warm air and will remain there for a certain number of days, with temperatures increasing and higher than usual, although the exact level that will be reached is a heat wave. harder to define”, says Mar Gómez.
When can we end this FUND?
According to Mar Gómez, this Monday we will experience the last heavy rain: “Towards the weekend, we are waiting for a new storm that could bring new rain, but its intensity will not be too great.”
“Entrepreneur. Internet fanatic. Certified zombie scholar. Friendly troublemaker. Bacon expert.”
