The tone is getting louder. Always conflicting messages. Still the danger of war.

There is a status quo in the conflict in Ukraine in recent days.

There’s a reason for that, says Anders Romarheim. He is head of the Center for International Security in the Department of Defense Studies.

– The whole international exchange of words is a struggle in itself. It will be a battle for high morale and to appear strong and capable. This will be an attempt to demonstrate that you are in the driver’s seat and have some form of control and ability to influence the outcome of the crisis, Romarheim tells Dagbladet.

Espionage and theft

One element that becomes more prominent in a crisis like this is intelligence.

– Intelligence is a multifaceted concept. Many people think about espionage and information theft, but there are also decision advocates. When the effort is high and the results are potentially very damaging, then one will rely more on intelligence information as well as in open political communication, says Romarheim.

World leaders in East and West made statements about what the other side would do. This weekend, for example, US intelligence claimed that Wednesday was the day an invasion of Ukraine could take place.

The great powers of the West try to say “we follow what you do”, says Romarheim.

– Don’t know the truth

If there are plans to attack on Wednesday, we may never get an answer.

– We do not know the truth, that is, if it is true. “What we do know now is that it’s unlikely that there will be an invasion today, but to say that it was wrong or bad intelligence is too easy,” said Romarheim.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday, Russian authorities said they were withdrawing a number of his troops returned from the Ukrainian border, but it is still estimated that about 150,000 Russian troops remain on the border.

On Wednesday evening, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg also came out and said that the situation simply did not allow Russia to back down.

– So far we have not seen any downsizing in the field. Instead, it appears that Russia is continuing its military build-up, Stoltenberg said, and has subsequently received support from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

– We have not seen any signs of Russia’s withdrawal from the border area with Ukraine. We see a smaller rotation. I don’t want to call this rotation backwards, we can’t call it that. “We don’t see any change,” Zelensky said.

– Like two boxers in the ring

An attack could happen soon

– It’s like two boxers in the ring before the fight starts. You’re trying to get a psychological advantage and say “I know what you’re doing”. It’s a psychological game where you communicate for effect, not to present the truth, says Romarheim.

He believes that purely professionally, communications to NATO and Russia can be called propaganda.

– It is possible to categorize Western communications today as a type of propaganda, but the Russian language is an even less honest form of propaganda, says Romarheim.

He believes the West is pushing hard so that President Putin doesn’t believe they are letting him do anything.

“London and Washington confronted Russia with harsh rhetoric for not “rewarding” Putin for “queuing up” 150,000 troops at the border with a weaker country, Romarheim said.

Just need a reason

Romarheim further emphasized that the danger was not over.

– One of the narratives I strongly believe in is that Russia really just needs some kind of pretext to attack. Putin has striking power at the ready and that is a form of opportunism where one is just waiting for an excuse to step in. It’s possible that they haven’t made up their mind about the invasion yet, which is that they haven’t decided yet, but they’re just starting a game where they have an advantageous seat, Romarheim speculated.

Believe that Putin has changed

In recent days, Ukrainian authorities have called on NATO, the United States and Britain to be less assertive in their communications.

– The fear of war in Ukraine is real and I think the chances of war arose more a month ago than it is now. Therefore, they may want to see that one can now bend slightly to get a friendly de-escalation, while Britain and the United States feel that their rather straight line of offensive has taken the lead, and then it would be wrong to speak nicely. with Putin, he said, adding:

– This may be based on the assumption from the West that Putin reacts more to power and threats than to dialogue, because mutual trust is low.