According to exit polls available at eleven p.m., after election day ends, the EU may find itself in the coming days with one of its founding members ruled by a party born after Mussolini’s fascism. The far-right coalition will gain a percentage of more than 41%, while his majority party, the Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, will double its 2018 results (between 22% and 26%) and it is hoped that he will accept being assigned to form a government by the President. Republic, Sergio Mattarella.
Despite Meloni’s restraint in recent weeks, Europe is entering uncharted territory for the second time: the first being Brexit and Britain’s exit from the EU. Never before has a government in Western Europe been led by a neo-fascist-inspired right wing that has shamelessly displayed its aggressive anti-European skepticism and national populism. Meloni has put at the center of his election speeches the traditional family defense that excludes other models, cuts in social assistance for the weakest, very strict policies on immigration and clearly regressive of women’s social achievements, particularly in relation to the right to have an abortion. At the local level, the Italian Brother is nothing new: he has been part of the municipal government for the last 30 years with no party described as right-wing in Italy, nor has there been any sanitary sanitaire, as is the case in much of Europe. . On Meloni’s immediate horizon are also proposals for constitutional reform aimed at turning Italy into a presidential republic similar to France or the United States.
But the fact that Europe is entering unknown territory does not mean that it cannot foresee a control mechanism, when the delivery of different European funds to its first beneficiary Country is still pending. Part of Meloni’s political strategy is to seek future hegemony on the Italian right and the mismatch of that goal with policies that could jeopardize the recovery fund. Two of his coalition partners have come a long way from Meloni’s results and before them a complicated future opens up: Forza Italia can only earn between 6% and 8% and its future depends on the biological resilience of its leader and founder, Silvio Berlusconi, 86 years old and visibly diminishing over the years. election campaign, while Matteo Salvini’s League could be under 10% of the vote, seriously jeopardizing his viability as head of the emphatically pro-Putin and anti-European party.
The split left has electorally penalized every possible alternative to the right-wing coalition, which has benefited from reforms to the 2018 electoral system. According to opinion polls, the 5 Star Movement is far from the 32% of the vote it got five years ago, despite rebounding in the latter part of the campaign, while Enrico Letta gains around 18% for the Democrats, useless for Italian social democracy. The left’s inability to form alliances may in large part have condemned the country for the return of Berlusconi and Salvini to Government under the command of a new figure who has learned how to play his cards effectively and boldly. Italy is openly leaning towards the extreme right but Europe must tighten control mechanisms against those who aspire to destabilize the EU itself.
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