Britain is heading to a general election, with Labour candidate Keir Starmer the favourite to become the next prime minister, according to all opinion polls, which predict a vote that will punish the Tories after 14 years of rule. Starmer could become the next tenant of 10 Downing Street in London, replacing the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, of the Conservative Party.

Electoral polls have put Labour ahead for months with around 40% of voters. By contrast, the Conservatives, led by former Chancellor Boris Johnson, are on 22%, a gap that Sunak has called for to be reduced so that Labour does not achieve a “supermajority”. The significant margin represents a major shift in the UK political landscape, after years of turmoil since the 2016 Brexit referendum.

This election will be the first since the UK formally left the European Union on 1 January 2020. Brexit has marked a turning point and no turning back in British politics, and the 2024 election presents an opportunity to evaluate the policies implemented since then.

The parliamentary system in the UK is bicameral, consisting of the House of Lords and the House of Commons. In this election, the 650-member House of Commons, equivalent to the Congress of Deputies in Spain, will be renewed. Citizens will elect a candidate for each constituency, who will win by a majority of one member, that is, the candidate for the seat who gets more votes than the others will be declared the winner, by a simple majority.

The absolute majority in the House of Commons consists of 326 MPs, which until now was held by the Conservatives with 348 seats, until their defeat on Thursday. Of the total seats, 543 represent England, 57 for Scotland, 32 for Wales and 18 for Northern Ireland. Polling stations will be open from 7am to 10pm, with the first results expected around 11.30pm.

The winner of the election will not be official until he or she confirms to the king, Charles III, his or her ability to form a government. After that, the new prime minister will move into 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the British prime minister.

The Rise of the Labor Party

Rishi Sunak took over as Prime Minister on 25 November 2022, after the short reign of Elizabeth Truss, which lasted just two months, and was forced to step in after Boris Johnson resigned, hit by a series of scandals, the Prime Minister’s leadership, the pandemic and the post-Brexit crisis. Sunak, who is of Indian descent, was previously leader of the Conservative Party. He called an election for 22 May, at a time when the Conservatives are facing a significant deficit in the polls against Labour.

Since its historic defeat at the hands of Boris Johnson in 2019, Labour has made a remarkable recovery under the leadership of Keir Starmer. Starmer has centralised his party and tapped into discontent with the long-serving Conservative government, which has been in power for 14 years. The change has put Labour on track to almost 40% of voting intentions.

Who else is running in the UK election?

Apart from the Labour and Conservative parties, several other political parties are also competing in this election:

Liberal Democratic Party: The group is led by Ed Davey, who advocates Britain’s re-entry into the EU and is seeking a comeback in this election. It currently has 15 seats.

Green party: With his environmental policies, he has presented himself as an alternative to young left-wing voters disillusioned by Starmer’s centrist turn. There is now only one MP in the House of Commons.

English Reformation: a right-wing populist and eurosceptic party that supports Brexit, formed by candidate Nigel Farage, who is used to taking positions from the main parties, as predicted by the polls for this election, where he could win 16% of the vote, many of them from the Tories. It currently has only one deputy.

Scottish National Party (SNP): With a nationalist and social democratic ideology, its main goal is Scottish independence and possible union with the EU. It currently has 43 seats in the lower house.

Plaid Cymru (Welsh Party): nationalist and centre-left, advocating for Welsh independence and entry into the EU. @mundiario

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