According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), November world soybean production forecast for the 2022/23 crop year was 390.5 million tonnes, 0.5 million tonnes lower than last month’s estimate, due to lower production forecasts in Argentina. . The production forecast for Paraguay remains at 10 million tonnes.

On the grain front, production is forecast at 782 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes above last month’s forecast, due to projected better harvests in Australia, Kazakhstan and the UK, which offset lower forecasts for Argentina and the European Union.

“Adjustments to production estimates will depend on climate evolution and factors that can affect the availability and costs of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers. Regarding Paraguay’s projections, it is hoped that in the coming months more accurate data will be provided, as the crop develops,” added the analyst from the consulting firm Mentu.

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As published by the Córdoba Grain Exchange, when translating the data recently reflected in the USDA report, in the case of soybeans, Brazil’s record production is 152 million tonnes and its export increase is expected to be 10 million tonnes compared to the 2021/22 campaign. In addition, final stocks will increase by 8 million tonnes.

In the United States, soybeans yield an estimated 95% of the initial yield. Production estimates for the country increased by one million tons compared to October, with the stock consumption ratio improving, which will remain at 5%. Both values ​​are close to what is expected by private individuals. For the new cycle, Argentina’s projection is reduced by one and a half million tonnes.

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Whereas according to todoagro.com.ar, accounting for 90% of the cereal harvest in the United States, the USDA published its November production forecast for the country and put it at 353.8 million tons, 800 thousand tons above the October forecast and one million above what expectations of the private sector.

This figure reversed the decline in estimates seen in previous months, in the context of poor crop conditions with only 53% in good to very good condition, with the ten campaign average being 63%.

Worldwide, production is projected to reach 1,168.4 million tons, maintaining the reductions the agency made in the past four months. The final stock will be reduced by 400 thousand tons, even though the stock/use ratio remains at 26%.