The political pendulum is swinging to the left these days Brazilian presidential electionwhere is Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva the country’s president was granted a third time. Lula he finds himself in a familiar, but certainly different, geopolitical constellation from his first two periods.

The first leftist wave of the early 21st century, led by Hugo Chavez in VenezuelaRafael Correa in Ecuador, Evo Morales in Bolivia and Lula da Silva in Brazilhave important outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation and population well-being.

The use of the primary sector and the current economic prosperity helped articulate the dialogue in the region despite the clear differences between, for example, Chávez’s state rule, and Lula’s economic pragmatism. In contrast, the current second wave looks more heterogeneous among themselves.

As an example, government Colombia and Chile present innovative projects primarily aimed at reducing economic inequality and openly criticized the tone of the dictators of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. This disarticulation is also representative challenges and opportunities for Lula, who can establish himself as a key international figure in the Americas.

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Lula da Silva: Chance to stay in power

given his economic policy openness, and good relations with the Maduro regime, Lula da Silva it could mediate aspects of oil production between the United States and Venezuela, as well as Venezuela’s migration crisis. Also brazilian president has made a strong commitment to caring for the environment, especially important at a time when the country is experiencing the highest deforestation rates in the Amazon in 15 years.

In this way, and bearing in mind the environmental policies of other countries such as Chile, Colombia and Argentina, Latin America can become a vanguard center in environmental conservation. However, the domestic situation in Brazil could damage the international agenda.

Brazil has the highest unemployment rate since 2012, equivalent to 9.3%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and with a poverty rate of 23.7%, affecting about 20 million people, according to Agencia Brasil.

Solving this problem becomes more complex given the configuration Brazilian politics after election. Lula da Silva does not have a majority in parliament and, the influence of Bolsonaro in the opposition This will make it very difficult to reach an agreement. Moreover, Lula’s victory was much weaker than opinion polls had expected, by a margin of just 2 million votes, indicating a fractured and ideologically confronted Brazil.

This challenging configuration demands immediate attention from Lula Da Silva most of them turn to internal politics, with the aim of negotiating with all political actors to reduce the various exigencies that exist within Brazil.

This is far from being a unique problem, as it reflects Polarization on the political and social level that occurred in the West. If a few years ago most of Latin America was right-handed, today it is mostly on the left, representing the movement of the voter pendulum in the last election.

Likewise, Western Europe swings the pendulum to the right, with examples in Italy and England. Economic inequality, inflation, corruption, insecurity and unemployment affect a large part of the world, and citizens are increasingly judging governments when they do not give urgency to these issues, voting opposition regardless of ideology.

These political fluctuations have an impact on the social fabric, affecting the capacity of government. If we don’t achieve structural changes that benefit the population, we will see a comeback Bolsonaroor from right in Latin Americain less than a decade. Lula da Silva’s big challenge will break this pendulum movement and consolidate its policy in Brazilwith potential influence in the region

By: Dr. Luis Sebastian Contreras-Huerta. PhD in Experimental Psychology from the University of Oxford. Currently a researcher at the University of Birmingham, studying social behavior and its brain base. Dr. Mitxy Mabel Meneses Gutiérrez. PhD in Politics from Goldsmiths College, University of London. He is currently a researcher and lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, UK, UK.