Unknown mystery. British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called a general election on July 4. That storywho have served in government since 2010, face a tough challenge to overcome the more than 20 percentage points they hold. Labor on the ballot.

Speculation has been rampant at the moment. The most telling was when this morning, in his speech to Parliament, Sunak refused to rule out an election in July and referred, generally, to elections in the second half of the year. Additionally, Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron has cut short his visit to Albania.

In his appearance without questions and in the pouring rain in front of number 10 Downing Street, Sunak explained that “only” his government had a clear plan for Britain and compared it to the Labor Party, whose leader, Sir Keir Starmer. accused of being weak and lacking clear ideas to face the challenges of a more insecure world.

Sunak believes that economy is starting to recover, “with faster growth than Germany, France and the US”, and inflation, which was a big problem in the last three years, has returned to “normal” levels. “This is just the beginning,” he said, and he contrasted his “honesty”, the stability he has brought to the country and the programs his government has put in place with the “uncertainty” that changes to the Labor Party would bring.

Starmer has called for a “stop to the chaos” and believes it is “time for change” as “after 14 years together storynothing seems to work anymore.”

The Prime Minister has ruled out elections on May 2, which coincide with local elections, and has the option of postponing the date until January, something that appears unlikely. It is assumed that they will do so in the fall (in October, before the North American elections) with the aim of taking advantage of the economic improvements transferred to people’s pockets.

Surveys are strongly against it

This will not be easy for Sunak who promised to fight for “vote by vote”. The latest YouGov poll on voting intentions shows a 27-point gap between Labor and the Conservatives. The party led by Sir Keir Starmer has an intention of 47%, compared to Sunak’s 20%, with a popularity index of only 20%. In third place was Reform UK, with 11% of the vote, a party to the right of the Tories fueled by dissatisfaction as they saw the Government as too weak in dealing with Brexit and immigration.

Guardian he gave 44.6% to Labour, compared to 22.9% for the Conservatives. A gap of around or above 20 points dates back to Liz Truss, who served as prime minister between September and November 2022, and Sunak has been unable to close the gap.

Different electoral systems

He election system from England is very different from Spain. The country is divided into 650 electoral districts where whoever wins by one vote will win the sole representative in the nomination. The formula supports the formation of a clear majority.

In 2019, Boris Johnson won the last election by a landslide, with 365 deputies (47 more than in the previous vote), while Labor gained 203 deputies (59 fewer) after competing with Jeremy Corbyn, a candidate with proposals deemed radical. The Labor Party has now chosen a much more moderate candidate, with a clearly ambiguous program and with a promise to continue promoting Ciy and not raise taxes, despite the fact that they plan to introduce VAT for private schools and eliminate figures such as non-payment. -dom and brought flowers.

Proof of the disaster predicted for conservatives was the presence of 65 deputies who announced they would not attend the election. The regional elections on May 2 were a test of how irreversible political change seems. For example, the Labor Party expanded its lead in the capital and took power story mayor of the West Midlands (Birmingham).

Tori’s problem

Two elements that explain the enormous wear on the engine story in five years is political and economic instability.

On Downing Street three prime ministers have died since 2019. Theresa May’s successor, Johnson won the election and stepped down in September 2022. The main reason was the pressure he received after a party he held at his official residence became public while the country was in lockdown. He followed Liz Truswho resigned after 45 days in Downing Street, dragged down by the fallout from a mini-budget holed by more than 40,000 million pounds as a result of radical tax cuts. Sunakwho lost the internal primaries to Truss, became prime minister in October 2022 and in just a year and a half he has won several internal battles and managed to bring political stability to the country.

That economy It is these other elements that have most distanced the Government from the public, although the latest data is starting to make Sunak smile. Just today it became known that inflation fell to 2.3% in April from 3.2% in the previous month. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday revised up its UK GDP forecast, from 0.5% to 0.7%, even though it will remain at the bottom of the G7 ranking, and the country’s economy emerged from recession in the first quarter of this year. with a surprising increase of 0.6% in the first quarter. The Bank of England is expected to start lowering interest rates from 5.25%, possibly in August, and banks have already started lowering the prices of some of their mortgages.