International efforts to avoid “severe” climate change – by meeting a global temperature rise target of 1.5°C – are impossible in emerging emitting countries without further substantial reductions in the costs of deploying emission-free energy or low-carbon, economic support technology transfer in high-emission countries, says an international study led by academics from Tsinghua University in China.
This is based on an analysis of emissions trends and drivers in each of the 59 countries where emissions from 2010-2018 grew faster than the global average (excluding China and India), according to the study. “Global mitigation efforts cannot ignore emerging emitters”published in the journal “National Science Review”.
They also project their emissions under various long-term energy scenarios and estimate the costs of the decarbonization pathway. On the other hand, within the framework of COP 27, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has warned world leaders that, at this time, the climate crisis is developing faster than our response to it, and that the future of people and places around the world is reeling. precariously from the disastrous consequences of inaction.
The researchers also project their emissions under various long-term energy scenarios and estimate the costs of the decarbonization pathway. The findings show that the total emissions from these emerging emitters – including Myanmar, Laos, Nepal, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Haiti, and Nicaragua – reach up to 7.5 Gt CO2/yr in the reference enhancement scenario. , far more than emissions from this region in previously published scenarios that would limit warming to 2°C, or even 1.5 degrees.
ADJUST PROJECTIONS.
Can Cui, the study’s lead author, a doctoral student at Tsinghua University, points out that emerging emitters such as Myanmar, Laos, Zambia and Ethiopia are on the way to industrialization, and appear to have neither the technology nor the financial capacity. to achieve low-carbon development, “which requires support from developed countries and the world’s major economies for capacity building in all relevant areas.”
“By looking in detail at low-income country emission trends and projections, this study addresses a key blind spot in global integrated assessment models, which almost invariably group these countries into the indistinguishable ‘other part of the world’ category. ‘” said Steve Davis, a professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine, and co-author of the study.
Meanwhile, Dabo Guan, Chair of Climate Change Economics at Tsinghua University and the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction at University College London, UK, points out that the global carbon space to limit 1.5°C is “very exhausting, while we have to consider enough equity in social development. -global economy. Developed countries should shift to negative emissions as soon as possible to accommodate the space required by emitting developing countries.”
He added that China could potentially play a bridging role in promoting North-South and South-South collaboration on knowledge transfer and technology spillovers to help emerging emitters increase their emission releases per unit of production (hence, fewer emissions), slowing down trend emissions growth. and, finally, reducing the emission space required for its economic growth.
The researchers conclude that these results highlight the importance of increasing mitigation efforts in hitherto largely neglected countries.
WWF: Time is running out
Within the framework of COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) He called for a “clear and unequivocal” shift from abstract promises to real-world action.
Conservation organizations are warning world leaders that the climate crisis is now evolving faster than our response to it, and that the futures of people and places around the world are being shaken by the catastrophic consequences of inaction.
call to action
“Time has never really been on our side, but now it is our greatest enemy. The extent of climate damage is already being seen around the world, destroying lives and livelihoods, and accelerating the loss of biodiversity,” said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, WWF Global Director. for Climate and Energy and COP20 President: “We are far from keeping warming to 1.5°C and time is running out on taking transformative action to prevent the most dire and irreversible damage to people and ecosystems.
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