20 years after Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) became Turkey’s strongman, he will be challenged harder on Sunday than he has been in years.

The six parties have joined together in a rare – for Turkey – alliance, with Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74) as Erdogan’s opponent.

A lot is at stake, such as relations with Russia, NATO and Sweden.

But above all the economy. It doesn’t suit the current president very well.

– The economy is the absolute worst problem for Erdogan, says Turkey expert Professor Einar Wigen at the University of Oslo.

Onions and potatoes

What he specifically meant was inflation, which last year was over 80 percent. It’s still cloudy, although the current situation is a little less dramatic.

For Kilicdaroglu’s opponents, the economy hardly needs to be mentioned. This helps people see prices in stores.

– It’s the background of everything people do all the time, says Wigen.

Whether that will be enough to decide the election is still uncertain.

– Erdogan said that “You didn’t disappoint your leaders because of onions and potatoes, right?”, said Wigen.

He believes many people in the current presidential electorate will listen to that argument.

Another bad case for Erdogan was the disastrous earthquake three months ago, with many blaming him for poor handling.

a pinch of salt

A little towards the end of the evening on Sunday, there was full-blown wrangling over the turnout as the counting progressed.

While the authorities have reported a lead of up to 25 percentage points to incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, opposition sources claim that, on the other hand, Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the leader.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, who is a candidate for the post of minister in a possible new government, stated that Kilicdaroglu is the leader, as 23.87 percent of the votes have been counted.

Wigen takes the fact that several opinion polls during the afternoon were positive for Erdogan – based on 9.1 percent of the votes counted – with a pinch of salt.

– It’s too early, and I’m skeptical of the Turkish polls, he said, adding that there was a good turnout.

He believed it was for Kilicdaroglu’s benefit. This is because many young voters tend to stay at home, and most of them vote for the opposition.

Those who voted for Erdogan characterized Wigen as “conservative” voters in the cities, people who often had roots in the countryside.

– Erdogan’s electoral success in the last 25 years has been largely based on people moving to the cities from the countryside, said Wigen.

– Less horse trading

He described the difference between the two candidates as Kilicdaroglus will try to build alliances and try to be president for everyone, while Erdogan will be president for those who vote for him.

Over time, he also believes the outside world will see a clear difference if Kilicdaroglu becomes the new president.

– First and foremost by the fact that policy is not formulated by the president meeting with Vladimir Putin, but by Turkey’s foreign service and diplomacy being allowed to formulate foreign policies meant to benefit Turkey.

For Sweden’s NATO membership, he believes the change of president is good news.

– I think Kilicdaroglu will probably drop his objections to Sweden’s membership, because he doesn’t want to use such a conflict as a bargaining chip. We will probably see a more unified foreign policy, and less horse trading, Wigen said.

– Can print new elections

In recent days, many have questioned whether an increasingly authoritarian Erdogan will honor the election loss – to which he himself has responded with a snort of yes.

Wigen has more doubts.

– If the election results dispelled all doubt, it might be hard for him to ignore it, but in a situation of doubt it was he who had the abyss and both ended.

– What can he do?

– I think there are two possibilities, says Wigen, and says that one is him declaring himself the winner before the results are tallied, like Fox News did with George W. Bush in the 2000 US election.

– The other is that he finds some technicality as justification to hold new elections soon, said Einar Wigen.

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