The 27 EU member states are facing greater economic hardship due to war and sanctions against Russia than countries like the United States. This is especially true with respect to Russian oil and gas, which keeps Europe’s transport sector running and ensures heat and light in homes.

Nevertheless, some European politicians believe it is important enough to stop the flow of fresh money into the Russian government while waging war against Ukraine.

Low risk for AS

The United States and Britain have imposed bans on imports of Russian oil, increasing pressure on Europe. The United States has also banned gas. The continent receives 40 percent of its gas and 25 percent of its oil from Russia, while for the United States the risk is very small.

“Many of our European allies will not be able to agree to this,” US President Joe Biden admitted as he introduced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas into the country.

An EU boycott of Russian energy would mean higher gasoline and electricity prices – and thus higher inflation. Ultimately, Europe could risk an energy crisis and recession while the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

How much inconvenience can consumers tolerate?

Prices for everything from food to electricity are already very high, partly due to the rapid rise in gas prices. Governments across Europe, including in Norway, have introduced subsidy schemes to help residents with electricity bills, but the war has also sent gasoline prices skyrocketing in Europe.

Costs have caused consumers to tighten their belts, and inflation in the eurozone in February was 5.8 percent – the highest since measurements began in 1997. The question is how much more economic discomfort Europeans will have to endure to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin.

– The consequences for the European economy will be enormous. Therefore, there is also a need for a clear and honest political decision that someone is willing to risk an economic recession against Putin, said Simone Tagliapietra at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. He is an energy policy expert.

Different consequences

Moreover, the consequences will vary in different parts of Europe. EU giants Germany and Italy rely heavily on Russian gas. Poland gets 67 percent of its oil from Russia, while Europe gets only 5 percent.

– It will be very divisive, because some parts of Europe are facing more pain than others. So that will create a lot of pressure on the European political model, deals and entire European projects, says energy researcher David Elmes at the University of Warwick.