This is a change of pace on Russian TV. One week ago, state-controlled Russian television mocked the United States and Britain, which had set a date – February 16 – for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Monday evening, members of Russia’s National Security Council went on trial before their bosses, demanding answers on whether to properly recognize the rebel-held parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent territories. Some were hesitant, such as the usually hawkish head of foreign espionage, Sergei Naryshkin. Then Putin said, “Say it directly.” Faced with this request, the spy chief said he supported these areas “becoming part of Russia”.

Very nervous the spy chief he answered was wrong, because the truth was that Russia recognized their independence. And shortly thereafter, Russian “peacekeeping” troops moved into the part of Ukraine that Russia had actually controlled since 2014. Prime Minister Mikhail Misjustin was also challenged by Putin in this TV session. He clearly muttered in the end that he supported the independence of these areas. The entire Security Council was thus tied to the mast of Putin’s ship on this chance voyage. The image of unity has been created in the Russian leadership – unity under pressure.

Beat change in Russian State-controlled TV must be listened to, as they warn of a real change of pace. The question is is this the Russian invasion we have been waiting for, or is it just the beginning of something much bigger, something much worse? A war aimed at destroying Ukraine – experimentally – once and for all?

That question may have been missed when Putin, right after the sensational public exercise of the Security Council, gave an hour-long history lecture on Ukraine. The content here is not for the faint of heart. For the content of this “speech to the nation” aims to delegitimize the entire project of the Ukrainian nation. Ukraine – Putin knows – is nothing more than a historic extension of Russia. He blamed Russian revolutionary leader Lenin for giving Ukraine its own borders, built on misunderstandings. And he described Ukraine as a breeding ground for NATO aggression against Russia.

In fact Putin’s history lectures were the ideological rationale for a much more comprehensive war against Ukraine. In conclusion, he said that Ukraine would be held responsible for the impending massacre. If Putin’s history lecture didn’t sound like a declaration of war before, it will sound like a declaration of war now.

Ukraine is the aggressor in this story, and Russia has evacuated part of the civilian population from rebel-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so they can escape the “genocide” – Russia believes – and the Ukrainian war machine. The story is reversed, as is often the case, to justify something as extreme as war.

But full scale war is still irrational for Russia, unless the intention is to force Ukraine to comply, “once and for all”, and control the country militarily. In Russia’s nationalist narrative of Ukraine, the country is not just a misunderstanding of history and an extension of Russian culture and history. It is also a fascist-ruled country with aggressive plans against Russia, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at Monday’s National Security Council meeting.

For the usual the righteous diplomat Lavrov has also read the signs of the times, and beat the drums of war. He did so even though he said on the other hand that the time for diplomacy was not necessarily over, and kept the door open for a meeting with his American counterpart Anthony Blinken, originally scheduled for Thursday. But French President Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to hold a summit between Putin and US President Joe Biden are likely to be thwarted.

Russia is gone for the first, and least dramatic, step of the available alternatives, in military action against Ukraine. Only Putin himself knows what his next steps will be. If not he is also confused at this crossroads? But if he is in doubt about the way forward, then Western threats of further sanctions and political isolation are unlikely to dictate his judgment. For Putin, Russia may be a military giant, but also an economic dwarf. Russia’s large economy is about the size of the small Netherlands. Perhaps this piece was written with the unenthusiastic faces of some members of the National Security Council, when Putin on TV forced them to publicly support his declaration of war against Ukraine.