New technologies help us meet the waves of aging. Sensor-based gadgets will monitor us. And in a few years, mRNA technology will give us more vaccines against cancer (!). Despite the rapid development, there will be a need for increased staff in the health sector in the future.

The big driver behind this need is that the proportion of older people in the population is increasing.

In the 2021 perspective report, it is estimated that the number of people over 80 years old is likely to make up 12 percent of the population by 2060. Up from 4.5 percent today.

The average health condition of 80 years old today is much better than 80 years ago a few decades ago. Smoked bones and COPD are back. So is cardiovascular disease. Norway has become healthier, and average life expectancy has increased several years through each of the previous decades.

It should be rethought

When the elderly in the future constitute the largest part of the population, it is also expected that the health and care sector will require more man-years. By 2060, man-years of doubling are expected to nearly double. With fewer and fewer people working per. retirees don’t look happy for future health care financing.

The predictions in the perspective report are confronted with many driving forces that can and will influence how demanding the future is:

Lower productivity growth. Projections assume productivity growth of half a percent per year. If this effect is not achieved, it would mean an additional billions and thousands of human years when we reach the year 2060.

Health status quo. The outlook report presupposes an improvement in the general state of health. This means that they are getting “fresh and old”, so that more and more elderly people can manage without expensive public services.

Increased family care. If the level of care in the family increases slightly compared to today, it will have a very positive effect on staffing needs and expenses. If it goes down, the need will increase.

Limited growth in standards. New technologies will prevent and treat more diseases, but will also raise expectations for standards in healthcare and care. Which will help blow up the framework for staff and budgets.

Most multi-disease costs

Not only the elderly who charge for health services and care. Another perspective is to see how the population is distributed in the need for health services. An article in the Journal of the Norwegian Medical Association (“Health care at the right time” – 2018) explains this well.

The smallest group costs the most. It is they who constantly need a lot of services. They are weak, unstable, have many diseases and have complex needs. Although relatively small (0.5 to 1 percent of the population), they take up a significant share of the budget.

This is followed by a group with multiple chronic illnesses, often in addition to social challenges, meaning that they need services and assistance on an ongoing basis. It makes up a few percent of the population.

It is estimated that the next 15 percent are made up of those who have only one or two chronic disorders, but are self-limiting.

The largest group comprises 80 percent of the population who are mostly healthy and have only temporary acute health problems.

In this division, the age distribution is not very intuitive. The increase in young people being defined as being unable to work is increasing, among other things, dangerous.

Manage yourself as long as possible

No matter how we twist and turn the challenge, some conclusions are clear.

• The future is getting old.
• Fewer able-bodied people have to support more elderly people.
• Technology will be part of the solution.
• No matter how much and good technology we get, it is likely that the need for more employees in the health and care sector will increase.
• Spending on health services and care will increase.

More and more of us have to prepare ourselves to manage ourselves for as long as possible.

This comment was first published in TU magazine, no.11/2021