Why is Johnson in trouble and is he still a tough opponent for Sunak?

Boris Johnson’s problems continued after he resigned as prime minister. An investigation by the House of Commons Committee on Privileges concluded that he had repeatedly and deliberately misled Parliament in the context of so-called ‘Partygate’. The latter term encapsulates a series of allegations that the parties took place at government offices (including 10 Downing Street) during the pandemic and that they materially violated the official lockdown rules in effect at the time. The former prime minister resigned as a member of Parliament in anticipation of the consequences of the committee’s final decision: he had violated the basic principle that ministers must tell Parliament the truth and by doing so had shown contempt for an important democratic institution. Losing his term in this way also meant a heavy loss of personal political power in the continued rivalry with Rishi Sunak, who was trying to distance himself from the decisions made by the committee members. While Johnson does not accept his conclusions, without a political mandate, he can only sway public debate from the sidelines by calling them “protracted political assassinations” and “shams”.

What is Johnson’s current position in British politics? Will he run for prime minister again in the future?

Boris Johnson regularly alluded in his resignation statements to the possibility of a return. However, apart from fulfilling public duties related to the role of the former Prime Minister, this should be considered as highly improbable and only a hypothetical possibility even in the next Parliament. There has been some speculation as to whether a realignment of right-wing political power, for example with Nigel Farage, could lead to a mutiny in the Conservative vote. While this could certainly hurt Rishi Sunak’s prospects of winning the general election, it is once again highly unlikely to create the political clout that will catapult Johnson back to the top.

What is Johnson’s support base within the Conservative Party compared to Sunak?

In light of recent events, it is difficult to put an exact figure on the divisions that exist within the Conservative Party. Based on public statements by each candidate’s backers in the 2022 primaries, trends suggest at this stage that Johnson’s core pool of supporters may have fallen further than last year’s 18%. In contrast, Sunak’s registered support last year of 43% may have increased slightly to about half of the parliamentary party in recognition of his continued efforts to steady the ship and appease his internal critics. Among members of the broader Conservative Party, it’s also hard to find much desire to relive the confrontation, chaos, and drama of the Johnson years.

Is Keir Starmer a strong leader with increasing Labor support in the opinion polls?

Unsurprisingly, the overall position on Keir Starmer’s leadership qualities is divided along the right-left voter spectrum. As local elections in the UK confirmed, voters to some extent respected his efforts to change the internal management and structure of the campaign, to reposition the party closer to the center-left and to emphasize internal discipline and consistent political positions. Yet even though Labor continues to lead in the opinion polls, few share the enthusiasm with which, for example, Tony Blair led to a landslide victory in 1997. Recent data shows that a third of Labor voters still view Starmer as an average contender who, regardless of quality such as honesty and dependability, struggled to appeal more to the working-class electorate and traditional union membership.