‘Munich on the night of war’, movie Christian Schwochow (2021), reinventing meeting of European leaders in the Bavarian capital to try to prevent the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia. The result is notable: the Sudetenland was handed over to Germany for pacify Hitler’s expansionist passions —disguising historical grievances-, but only succeeded in delaying the war that was to begin, publicly, six months later.
In addition to the fictional plot, the film focuses on the role of Arthur Neville Chamberlainthen Prime Minister of England. The desire to maintain peace above all, blind belief in the strength of principles and values, certain moral superiority, certain ingenuity, or experience, or carelessness, or apathy; with their passivity, Britain and France inadvertently paved the way for war.
Everything sounds very familiar today, although the situation is very different from 1938. However, it is hoped that this event will serve as a lesson to today’s leaders. For if the West does not respond by force to Russia’s recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of the breakaway Ukraine of Donbas, and the consequent deployment of troops, Vladimir Putin will assume that he has clear path to invade all of Ukraine.
Falcon, scoundrel in the schoolyard, environmental bully… These are some of the adjectives the Russian leader has received for his disdain for legality and manipulation of his history. He had emerged (almost) unscathed from his foray into Georgia and, above all, from annexation of crimea.
The Western Allies had to find a way to combat impotence what does it mean to deal with a leader who decided to pass all international standards, having enjoyed decades of stability that is taken for granted. After weeks of threats with decisive action, the moment of truth has come.
The first to take steps was Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of discontinue Nord Stream 2 gas gas pipeline approval This is good news in this context. It seems that Berlin may be lukewarm in its response to Russia. In the past, Angela Merkel’s traditional quest for compromise prevailed. At present, doubts are on the different sensitivities within the new German Government. The economic and energetic burden of German-Russian relations will justify any reluctance. But Scholz has decided to be firm in his refusal.
The European Union has also presented its action package. The Commission and the Council welcome the determination and unity of Member States, in coordination with their international allies. Also from the speed in reacting. The scenario has been tracked for a long time, so there won’t be any excuses.
The packages prepared contradict those involved in decision-making and the banks that finance the Army and other operations in the region and intend restricting the Russian government’s access to the Uni . capital and financial marketsand trade with affected areas.
Less powerful than it should be, but now it is necessary to very well calibrate the intensity and phase of sanctions, to can increase pressure during conflict. At the time of writing this line, Washington has not announced them, but they will be following the same path.
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We have to see the real effect of all these actions -and of the actions to come, if the conflict worsens, which will worsen- about the economy, society and politics of Russia. Kremlin usually very sensitive to sanctions aimed at the president’s inner circle; those who, in addition to harming them economically, prevent them from enjoying their property or taking their children to the best schools in England, for example.
Putin and his people are now acting as if they have taken it for granted. But determination and unity are the main weapons of a democracy against the impunity of the school bullies who have come to lead the country.
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