I just came back from China and I found something in Spain that wasn’t even seen in the Asian giant. We have witnessed the most extraordinary episode of pressure effort National Institute of Statistics. There has been a leak of brutal GDP revisions carried out by politicians and their advisors the likes of which has never been seen in our country.

An attempt was made to discredit the National Accounts calculations by stating that “INE has miscalculated GDP for three years” when revisions are normal, GDP is just an estimate and new data leading to revisions is common across the European Union. . No serious person in his country would think of saying that Britain or Italy had miscalculated GDP for three years unless they lived on loyalty to the government and, of course, on our taxes.

In addition, media pressure exercises have been carried out leaked reviews of around 100,000 million, up to eight points of GDPby using some of the most ridiculous excuses, such as saying that fiscal data has grown much more than GDP – because our taxes have been reduced and not deflated – or that Gross Value Added has grown more than real GDP – of course, in Venezuela this is also the case , the so-called inflationary impact-… Announcing a review of such magnitude, never before seen, and completely disproportionate, seeks to put pressure on the INE as they have done to the CPI calculations when the government did not like it.

Resignation of INE president

We must maintain the independence of statistical organizations and their credibility. Moreover, we must remember that they are the ones who raise doubts and attacks on INE’s credibility Calviño, Montero and Escrivá, culminating in resignation of the president of the organization. Information leaks by politicians and their advisers must not be repeated, and pressure on statistical organizations must end.

Of course, these data and estimates can be analyzed critically. More will be lost. All analysis is always subjective. What cannot be tolerated is to disguise rigor and independence as a propaganda effort to influence and pressure organizations that, like the Bank of Spain, AIReF and INE, have unquestionable prestige… It is true, At least, it is funny if people the same ones who promoted the campaign against INE in CPI and GDP calculations called others “data deniers”.

These politicians announced an upward revision of between 70,000 and 100,000 million euros in GDP with their “calculations” and, when the figure remained at one fifth, they claimed that they had been proven right. Touch.

INE has carried out a review using the latest methodology and data which has also been carried out by neighboring countries. Italy announced on Friday that GDP rose 8.3% in 2021 as the euro zone’s third-largest economy recovered from the pandemic, compared with the previous figure of 7%. No one in Italy wrote such propaganda verses as we see in Spain.

At the edge of Europe

With the quarterly accounting review carried out by INE on Friday: Spain remains at the bottom of the rankings in Europe, being the fourth economy to experience the least growth since the fourth quarter of 2019. Spain is below economies such as Ireland (+28.7 % ), Portugal (+4.4%, an economy more dependent on tourism than Spain), Hungary (+4%), Estonia (+2.6%), Italy (+2.1%), and the Eurozone average (+3.1%). Spain recovered pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of 2022, when the Eurozone group of countries reached similar conditions a year earlier, in the third quarter of 2021.

INE too dismantling the “job record spell”. Spain slightly recovered working hours from the 2019 maximum in the second quarter of 2023, but very far from 2008. Therefore, we cannot talk about employment records. Hours worked by all workers – thousands of hours, adjusted for season – remained at 8,618,011, well down from 8,977,548 in 2008 and slightly above the maximum in 2019, which was 8,554,873. In the second quarter data, working hours reflected 1% growth compared to 1.8% previously.

Economic slowdown

National accounting data also reflects the slowdown. From year to year, The GDP variation was 2.2%, this figure is 2.0 points lower than in the first quarter of 2023. Quarterly GDP rose due to increased government spending, which grew a tenth more than expected in July, and a large increase in non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH). Household consumption is clearly slowing, as are exports. In fact, the Spanish economy recorded its second worst trade deficit in more than ten years, coupled with a very high fiscal deficit and a debt that, according to the Bank of Spain, is growing at 4.8% per year.

The debt balance of Public Administrations under the Excessive Deficit Protocol (PDE) amounted to 1.55 trillion euros in July 2023, with an inter-annual growth rate of 4.8%, according to the Bank of Spain. However, total government debt (total liabilities) exceeds 1.9 trillion and Spain’s gross foreign debt exceeds 2.37 trillion euros, 168.3% of GDP. The international investment position reached -56.6% of GDP in the second quarter of 2023, one of the worst in the OECD. Spain is not growing. He’s in debt.

INE also reflected that the industrial turnover index fell by 5.2% year-on-year, while the Services Sector general turnover index remained at a record +1.2% not seen in a year.

Don’t forget that The government always blames the collapse of the tourism sector in 2020, but forgets that this recovery was caused by the amazing return of the tourism sector. and Portugal or Greece, which are more dependent on tourism, recorded better performance data in 2019-2023.

The problem with this revision is that it is used as an excuse to increase fiscal inequality. With the upward revision of GDP carried out by the statistical office, the government prided itself on “reducing” debt even though debt was rising, reducing the “deficit to GDP” even though its expenditure was much greater than its income, and “lowering” fiscal pressure even though it rose, its taxes. In Italy, the government is already preparing to release more funds following the review. In Spain they don’t need to prepare, they already do it.

The GDP review doesn’t change anything in terms of Spain’s poor economic performance and employment, but propaganda will continue to say that we are like motorbikes… broken down and in debt.