London, 11 Dec (EFE).- An epidemiological model released this Saturday predicts between 25,000 deaths, in the most optimistic scenario, and 75,000, in the most pessimistic, by the omicron variant in the next five months in the UK if instead they implement more restrictive restrictions. strict.
The study – which has not been reviewed by independent experts – has been prepared by the prestigious London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and shows that the new wave of coronavirus could bring more cases and hospitalizations than in January this year.
In their projections, the scientists looked at two possible scenarios: one, “optimistic”, in which the variant has a low ability to exit the immune system and the booster dose is highly effective, and pessimistic, in which omicron can evade immunity. and vaccines are ineffective.
These possibilities, the study recalls, only refer to if measures are not taken other than those currently in the UK, where the use of masks is mandatory in most enclosed areas and remote work is recommended.
In the first case, a peak of 2,000 daily hospital admissions is expected, for a total of 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between December 1 and April 30, 2022.
If steps were taken earlier in the year such as limiting indoor hospitality, closing some entertainment venues and limiting the number of people that could meet, this should be enough to control the tide “substantially” and reduce revenues to 53,000 and deaths to 7,600.
In the worst trajectory, scientists predict the double peak of hospitalizations seen last January, for a total of 492,000 admissions and 74,800 deaths.
With greater restrictions, the peak of hospitalizations could be below last January.
One of the study’s co-directors, Rosanna Barnard, recalled in a statement that “there is a lot of uncertainty about the characteristics of the omicron” and it is not even known whether it will follow the same course as in South Africa, where it was first identified.
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact in the first half of 2022 will diminish with moderate containment measures, such as teleworking. However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to maintain tighter restrictions to ensure that the NHS (health system) is not overwhelmed. ,” he said.
The expert acknowledged that “nobody wants a new confinement”, but a final measure may be needed if omicron can easily evade the immune system.
Despite everything, he stressed that leaders must “consider the full social impact of these actions, not just the epidemiological.” EFE
uh / psh
© EFE 2021. Redistribution and redistribution of all or part of the content of the EFE service is expressly prohibited, without the prior and express consent of Agencia EFE SA